That depended on a number of factors such as the last GPS location transmitted by the plane, how far the aircraft might have traveled after that and also the location of dead bodies found on the surface once their rate of drift in the water had been taken into account. However, a number of searches that relied on this information had failed to find the wreckage.
So the question that Stone and co had to answer was how this evidence should be used to modify the probability distribution. This is what statisticians call the posterior distribution. To calculate it, Stone and co had to take into account the failure of four different searches after the plane went down. The first was the failure to find debris or bodies for six days after the plane went missing in June ; then there was the failure of acoustic searches in July to detect the pings from underwater locator beacons on the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder; next, another search in August failed to find anything using side-scanning sonar; and finally, there was another unsuccessful search using side-scanning sonar in April and May The searches all took place in different, sometimes overlapping areas, within 40 nautical miles of the last known location of the plane.
These areas were calculated on the basis of how far debris and bodies were thought to have drifted due to wind and currents. A different analysis might have excluded this location on the basis that it had already been covered.
But Stone and co chose to include the possibility that the acoustic beacons may have failed, a crucial decision that led directly to the discovery of the wreckage. Indeed, it seems likely that the beacons did fail and that this was the main reason why the search took so long. Instead, statisticians themselves play a crucial role in evaluating the evidence, deciding what it means and then incorporating it in an appropriate way into the Bayesian model.
It also led to the discovery of many more bodies that were then reunited with grieving families. This story of the statistical search for a missing aircraft is hugely relevant now because of the ongoing search for Malaysia Airlines flight MH which disappeared en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8.
A pioneer in the development of deep-sea submersibles and remotely operated vehicle systems, he has taken part in more than deep-sea expeditions. In , he discovered the RMS Titanic , and has succeeded in tracking down numerous other significant shipwrecks, including the German battleship Bismarck , the lost fleet of Guadalcanal, the U.
He is known for his research on the ecology and evolution of fauna in deep-ocean hydrothermal, seamount, canyon and deep trench systems. He has conducted more than 60 scientific expeditions in the Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. Sunita L. Her research explores how the larvae of seafloor invertebrates such as anemones and sea stars disperse to isolated, island-like habitats, how larvae settle and colonize new sites, and how their communities change over time.
Kirstin also has ongoing projects in the Arctic and on coral reefs in Palau. Her work frequently takes her underwater using remotely operated vehicles and SCUBA and carries her to the far corners of the world.
Ocean Robots: Air France Flight Search for Air France Flight What Happened to Air France Flight ? Related Topics Antikythera Shipwreck.
RMS Titanic. We use cookies to analyze site usage and improve user experience. By continuing on this site, you consent to their use. Read our Privacy Policy for more info and to amend settings. Investigators found the pilots had lost control when air-speed sensors froze. It was the worst crash in Air France's history, when the Airbus A disappeared over the Atlantic in a storm. It took two years to find the wreckage, which was eventually located by remote-controlled submarines in , after a search of 10, sq km 3, sq miles of ocean floor.
A combination of technical failure involving the plane's Pitot sensors during the storm and the pilots' inability to react to the plane stalling led to it plunging into the sea at a speed of 11,ft 3,m per minute, French investigators concluded in While the pilots had been confused by faulty air-speed readings, they mistakenly pointed the nose of the plane upwards when it stalled instead of down.
Since the crash, pilot training has been improved and the speed sensors replaced. Families of those who died as well as pilots' unions have campaigned for years for a trial, BBC Paris correspondent Hugh Schofield reports.
Magistrates had initially charged both the airline and manufacturer with manslaughter but the Paris prosecutor then recommended that only Air France should go on trial.
0コメント